Penn State's Shot

Tyler Stearns |

The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the more overlooked teams in college football. After winning their first two playoff games, the Lions enter the semifinal matchup versus Notre Dame as an underdog. The Irish are the favorites in this game because of the defensive performance they had against Georgia, limiting the Bulldogs to ten points. Penn State played close against Boise State after dominating SMU, which is why the media has given the edge in this matchup to Notre Dame. But let's look at this game through the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.

Abdul Carter, Via ABC

Penn State is the best-run-defending team left in the playoff. With a spectacular defensive line led by ED Abdul Carter, the unit stops the run at the first level. However, with a linebacker unit led by Kobie King that can stop the run at the second level, running backs and offensive linemen rarely get to the secondary. Penn State has only given up 100 yards rushing to two backs this season: Woody Marks (USC) and Ashton Jeanty (Boise State). Those backs combined for over 50 carries in their respective games. Penn State is going up against a run-heavy team in Notre Dame. Notre Dame has notoriously not thrown the ball well at all this year. They threw for 90 yards versus Georgia and haven't reached 250+ passing yards in a game all year. Their run game has worked, but it has only succeeded against teams with either a bad offense or a bad defense. They haven't faced a team with a great offense and great defense. Penn State has both. Drew Allar has been great this year and has limited turnovers. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are the true best running back duo in the country. And Tyler Warren is the best tight end in the nation. They are built offensively similar to USC (minus the wide-receiver caliber weapons), a team that put up 35 points on the Irish, the most they allowed all year. And defensively, they are built like Georgia, a team that can stop the run and pass.

This is a bad matchup for the Irish. If Leonard isn't able to throw for over 180 yards and the team isn't able to run for over 250 total yards, Penn State will bypass the Notre Dame defense and will win the football game. It is highly unlikely that ND will change its identity going into a must-win situation, so The Take likes Penn State to win 45-27.